Monday, March 13, 2017

Assembly Election, Exit Poll and Expert Opinion

As exit poll results indicated BJP was ahead in many states, Mr. Kamal Mitra Chenoy, - an academic, a sympathiser of AAP, and an activist, lamented in an article how mainstream media was not talking about AAP. How media was sucking up to seat of power that is BJP lead government at the centre. According to Mr. Chenoy, there was no chance of BJP forming government in UP. More so after demonetisation move that had devastated poor of UP, after an alliance between SP and congress party that is likely to galvanize minority and Yadav votes, after communal polarisation of the environment, add to this internal squabble within NDA. In nutshell, the following result was predicted by Mr. Chenoy:

  •  Goa will be lost by the BJP;
  • Punjab in which the BJP will trail the Aam Aadmi Party and the Congress;
  • A SP-Congress government, or less likely a BJP-BSP government in UP.
  • Manipur is likely to be dominated by the regional parties to the continued detriment of the BJP.
  • Uttarakhand will be hard fought between the Congress and the BJP.


A day later, when election results were declared the results looked like this :
  • UP and Uttarakhand were swept by BJP;
  • BJP was forming governments in Goa and Manipur;
  • Punjab was won by congress. Difference between AAP and SAD - BJP was very less, despite ten year of anti-incumbency of SAD - BJP.

I do not know what Mr. Chenoy learnt during his stay in Goa. May be he was smoking something exotic, Goa is a good place for such activity. It appears neither demonitisation, nor grand alliance between SP and Congress had any effect on Modi lead BJP machine. Mr. Chenoy can echo Ms. Mayawati's charge that election were fraudulent because EVM's were tampered with. Mr. Chenoy can resort to argument that BJP had played caste card, BJP had not gave representation to muslims etc. But a victory of the magnitude seen in UP, 324 out of 400 seats, cannot happen without muslims supporting BJP despite not fielding any candidate from the community. I think when dust settles, it may appear muslim women had voted for the party for its cooking gas scheme, for its toilet scheme, for its effort to make people self reliant and of course for supporting women's voice on triple talaq.

In the end, Mr. Chenoy must introspect about his own party and not worry too much about BJP. AAP did only marginally better than  SAD - BJP in Punjab. AAP did not open its account in Goa. It can always be said that this is not a bad performance for AAP, given it is only a three year old party.  Sanctimonious attitude of people like Mr. Chenoy, and arrogance of AAP spokes-people, that  heap ridicule on opposing parties, needs tempering before one can take the party seriously. 
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